Americans bought 18 percent fewer cars in 2008 than 2007. They may buy fewer still in 2009. And 2010. And 2011. According to some analysts, the automotive market might not recover to 2007 levels until 2012.

The effect of the sales drop in 2008, according to Autoblog, is "the same as if Acura, Audi, BMW, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Lexus, MINI, Porsche, and Saab all closed their doors in 2008."

John Casesa of the consulting firm Casesa Shapiro Group told The International Herald Tribune, "Trading in a car every three years is a luxury that the average American can no longer afford." Belt-tightening Americans staying out of the showroom will have a severe impact on automakers. Jesse Toprak, chief auto analyst for Edmunds.com, told the IHT, "With these declines in revenues, you will see research and development budgets cut; we are going to have fewer new vehicles and less variety for at least the next couple of years."

Government intervention intended to help the automakers recover may help blunt the impact somewhat, but a realignment of the industry is unavoidable, analysts say. CNN Money reports, "No matter what further concessions the United Auto Workers union makes, what debt relief the automakers win in talks with creditors and what kind of additional federal help is made available, U.S. consumers have to start buying cars again.

And a rebound in sales will be difficult, if not impossible, to come by for General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler LLC as long as the unemployment rate keeps rising."

According to the IHT, the auto industry "had grown accustomed to nearly unfettered growth since the mid-1990s. The industry thrived on cheap credit that allowed automakers to offer low-interest loans and rock-bottom lease payments to encourage consumers to regularly trade in and upgrade their vehicles." Consumers even bought extraneous cars. "In 1970, less than 6 percent of American households owned three or more vehicles, according to the Department of Transportation. By 2000, that percentage had jumped to 18. More than 244 million vehicles were in operation in 2006, far outnumbering the 202 million licensed drivers in the country, according to the most recent U.S. statistics." To meet the demand, companies built more varieties of cars, and redesigned existing cars more often - a new model of each car now debuts, on average, every three years. In the 1980's, that average was five years.

If that pattern changes, Autoblog writes, "that could mean the cars on offer won't be as interesting or as cutting edge as before. While that could be looked at as a benefit, saving manufacturers the need to put new redesigned cars in showrooms every three years, the necessary auto industry infrastructure changes (plant closers, layoffs, etc.), the certain extinction of some companies, and the uncertain future are going to hurt."

But some analysts say a faster recovery is possible, and some economists are forecasting a much sharper rebound in auto sales than now being assumed even by the automakers. Joseph Carson, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, told CNN Money that "industrywide sales should reach 13 million this year, and that second-half sales could climb to above a 14 million annualized sales rate. He said the massive economic stimulus plan likely to be passed by Congress, coupled with low interest rates, should lead to a much stronger rebound than many are expecting. "

The automakers have all opened 2009 with aggressive price discounts, hoping to spark an industry recovery.  Research January's Best Car Deals with U.S. News' car Rankings and Reviews.